Comparing Apples and Dates

The events in Tunisia set off a domino effect in the Middle East and North Africa, with many populations rising en-masse to either depose decades of dictatorship or petition the existing government for increased freedoms. 2011 is going to be a major year in the history of the region, hopefully a time that historians will point to as the beginning of an age of greater freedom, understanding, prosperity and peace.

I think historians will also use this juncture to draw some conclusions and comparisons about ways to establish a new government. On the one hand we have organic popular uprisings, on the other hand we have government change enacted by a external force in the case of Iraq. While the legitimacy of each may be less of a question, the effectiveness of each strategy will be playing out for the next few decades. And while this is far from a perfect scientific experiment, it should provide compelling arguments in favor or against military occupation and overthrow of dictatorial regimes.

I won't pretend that I don't think one will prove better than the other, but regardless of my own biases this year could be quite the petri dish for how to lay the foundations of a modern functioning democracy. In Iraq we have a military occupation and slow withdrawl while encouraging a democratic process and advising its growth. In some countries like Morocco this process might be slower. The petitioning for greater freedoms now without a total overhaul of the government could potentially begin a longer, slower and less chaotic process from one government to a democracy. Morocco is known however as already being a bit more liberal than other countries in North Africa, partially due to its close proximity and ties to Europe, so they could be starting slightly further ahead than other countries. And in Egypt we will see a complete overhaul induced by a popular protest until an autocratic authority stepped down, ceding power to a well respected military until such time as free and fair elections can be held.

Will they alter or replace their constitutions? What freedoms will be guaranteed? Will the new government first seek to govern or to define the new supreme law of the land? What role will religion play in formation of government law and policy? Will minorities be protected? Many fascinating questions await answering, and we shall see what comes of it all. It is heartening to know that most people agree that whatever comes next, it will almost certainly be a step forward for humanity.